2011 Tech Predictions

January 2nd, 2011

Another New Year tradition (besides admitting how badly I predicted the last year) is to make new predictions so I have something to write about a year from now. (Have to keep those google ad hits coming ya know….). I’m going to keep these nice and short.

Mac App Store

  • will launch as part of 10.6.6 update
  • App Store will be placed in the dock for users to see
  • uses iTunes credit like music and apps
  • iWork ’11 will be the flagship apps
  • lots of iOS apps will get ported over to Mac OS X
  • Apple will take heat for the store rules and will over the year adjust and open them up)

iWork ’11

  • no physical version for consumers (schools still get disks)
  • full screen UI emphasized (more like iPhoto ’11)(floating windows go away)
  • Airplay

Verizon iPhone

  • launches February/March
  • basically an iPhone 4 with CDMA parts (no dual band or LTE)
  • huge launch ala iPhone 4
  • three main buyers:AT&T sufferers, and current Verizon dumb phone users and Android users
  • AT&T will get a little better while Verizon gets noticeably worse

iPad 2

  • launches late March/April
  • launches running iOS 4.x
  • dual core ARM
  • 512 MB ram
  • front FaceTime camera and rear camera
  • takes design cues from 4th gen iPod touch
  • iPhoto/iMovie introduced
  • iWork apps updated to Version 2
  • retains $499 entry point
  • 3 SKU: wifi, AT&T, and Verizon enabled
  • 1st gen iPad discontinued (or remains $499 entry if new features of the 2 are pricier than expected)
  • will accelerated the death of the NetBook
  • will start to eat into laptop sales

iOS 5

  • unveiled late April/May
  • will run on 1st gen iPad, iPhone 3GS, 3rd gen Touches and up, and iPhone 4
  • launches in summer with iPhone 5
  • improved multitasking (UI and performance)
  • background “fetching” API (apps can check and download in background like MAIL)
  • new notification system ( pull down bar of some sort)(look at how Game Center does it)
  • Airplay updated (fixed)
  • Game Center syncs game state across iOS devices

iPhone 5 (iPhone 4S)

  • launches June/July
  • dual core ARM
  • 512 MB ram (maybe 1GB)
  • same “glass sandwich” look of the 4, but modified antennae design
  • Slightly improved specs overall, basically the. 3GS to the 3G sort of leap

Mac OS X “Lion”

  • delayed launch, probably in the Fall
  • more features detailed at WWDC
  • a lot more of the iOS elements people haven’t been paying attention to (like auto save and app relaunching) will be brought into focus (expect a lot of nerd panic)
  • will cost less than $129 (my guess is $79)
  • will sell on the same thumb drive the current MacBook Air uses
  • no digital download version

iPods

  • shuffle sticks around
  • nano undergoes another dramatic change
  • Classic hangs around like the undead
  • iPod Touch gets all the features of iPhone 5

Macs

  • MacBook line inherits MacBook Air design cues
  • Solid state is emphasized even more
  • iMac probably gets a still bigger size and slight redesign

Apple TV

  • current hardware will be around for 2011 at least
  • App Store? Highly aggressive move against content providers, ISP and established gaming consoles. I say 50/50 on this one

Ping

  • a failure as is
  • if Apple breaks it off into it’s own separate (fast loading) app and allows one to follow more than just music purchases it might have a chance

Android 3.0 “Honeycomb”

  • launched by Google in spring
  • will be fawned over by Tech Press
  • not all current Android phones will get it (and people will somehow be surprised)
  • AT&T and Verizon customers won’t care because they’ll be buying iPhones
  • will enable lots of Android tablets (none of which will be good)

Google Chrome OS

  • will launch with a thud then fail

Google TV

  • continued fragmentation
  • continued issues with content providers
  • a failure in the market

Windows Phone 7

  • gets Copy and Paste….better then Android but not as good as iPhone
  • gets multitasking….better then Android but not as good as iPhone
  • beats Blackberry and other legacy platforms in marketshare
  • App Store remains in 3rd place

The Tablet Market

  • iPad retains 60-70% marketshare
  • lots of stuff shown at CES 2011, won’t launch after iPad 2 shows up
  • lots of Android 3.0 tablets, none will take off
  • RIM launches PlayBook with limited adoption, businesses will buy more iPads
  • HP Palm shows Web OS tablet, but the OS and hardware are at least a generation behind

Smart Phone Market

  • Android starts declining after Verizon iPhone Launch (tech press will wonder why)
  • iOS, Android, and maybe Windows Phone 7 will be 3 big players

Ebook Market

  • the Kindle will go down to $99, still black and white eink
  • Amazon will maintain the lead in ebook selection and platform accessibility
  • iBooks will continue to be a muddling ebook experience but great PDF reader

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